Movement

The tracks of cyclones over the NIO during 1891-2015 are shown below. Recently an electronic atlas has been published for tracks of CDs over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Analyses of storm tracks with reference to their genesis, recurvature and landfall points on 1°x1° scale along the Indian coasts have also been produced. Mostly the system developing over the NIO move in a northwesterly direction

Fig 1(a). However, there are cases of recurvature towards the northeast or east to the southwest. The frequency of recurvature is higher towards the northeast compared to southwest or east. It is found that the probability of recurvature is higher over the Arabian Sea when the system moves to the north of 15°N leading to more landfalls over Gujarat coast. Over the Bay of Bengal, there is no such preferred latitude/longitude for the recurvature of the system. However the probability of recurvature towards the northeast is higher during the pre-monsoon Season.

Fig.1(a). Tracks of cyclones over the NIO during 1891-2015

The probability of direction of movement of cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean based on cyclone e-Atlas is shown in Fig.1(b).

Fig.1(b) Probability of direction of movement of cyclonic disturbances over the NIO